Black Immigrant Daily News
US private forecaster AccuWeather expects this year’s hurricane season to be near-average with 11-15 named storms.
Of those named storms, one to three could become major hurricanes with top sustained winds of 111 mph or higher during the season which runs from June 1 to November 30.
One of the factors in this year’s hurricane season being less active is the expected transition to an El Ni?o weather pattern.
In early March, US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Centre (CPC) declared an end to the La Ni?a weather event that had been in place through the past three hurricane seasons.
According to the forecaster, an El Ni?o pattern causes the winds at higher levels of the atmosphere to dip southward and deep into the tropics more frequently, resulting in more episodes of vertical wind shear.
Vertical wind shear causes thunderstorms and convective clouds within emerging tropical disturbances to be tilted, disrupting tropical development, AccuWeather’s Senior Meteorologist and Hurricane Expert Dan Kottlowski said.
Kottlowski noted hurricane seasons with emerging El Ni?o patterns tend to be less active than normal.
He however warned: “Even if this season were to turn out to be less active than normal, abundant warm water could lead to the development of a couple of very strong hurricanes, as we saw with [Hurricane] Ian.”
Other factors that will affect the hurricane season include the warmth of sea surface temperatures active areas such as the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico and the strength of the African easterly jet wind pattern.