Michigan race: All you need to know about Abdul El-Sayed v Mike Rogers 

Dearborn, Michigan – Chadi Abdulrazek, an Arab American political activist who has been volunteering to help elect Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed, says he’s spoken in recent days to journalists from Denmark, Sweden, the Netherlands, France and the United Kingdom.

The United States Senate race between El-Sayed and his Republican rival Mike Rogers is attracting national and international attention, reflecting the potent political symbolism that belies its outcome, which extends far beyond one seat in the upper chamber of Congress.

Supporters in each camp paint the contest as a crucial fight that could shape the political direction of the state and the nation for years.

Abdulrazek, a small business owner, said the election is a chance to hold Trump accountable for breaking his promises to pursue peace in the world and focus on the needs of Americans.

For Arab and Muslim communities that have been facing Islamophobic attacks as part of the Senate race, the vote is pivotal, he added.

“What’s on the line is they have to stand up for themselves and say, ‘We are part of this country, and we’re going to be voting, and we will actually make a change’,” Abdulrazek told Al Jazeera.

Here, Al Jazeera looks at the US Senate race in Michigan and why it has gained so much attention.

El-Sayed is a public health advocate who previously led the health department in Detroit and Wayne County in southeast Michigan. He is 42.

If elected, the Democrat of Egyptian descent would become the first-ever Muslim US senator.

El-Sayed ran for governor in 2018 but fell short in the Democratic primary against eventual winner Gretchen Whitmer. The Democratic nominee has embraced progressive policies, especially Medicare for All – a plan to expand government-funded healthcare to everyone in the US.

Rogers is a 63-year-old former US Congress member and state legislator. The Republican nominee ran for the Senate in 2024 and narrowly lost to centrist Democratic Senator Elissa Slotkin.

He is a close ally of Donald Trump, but has sought to create some distance between his campaign and the unpopular president.

For example, Rogers has supported Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching the war against Iran, while also calling for an end to the conflict.

The Republican candidate also backs tax cuts, increasing domestic energy production and deregulation.

Why is the race so important?

It will be difficult for Democrats to gain control of the Senate if they lose Michigan. The seat is currently held by retiring Democrat Gary Peters.

A Rogers win would hand the swing state Senate seat to Republicans for at least six years.

The race, however, is not just about the partisan math in the Senate. It is a test of the electoral viability of progressive ideas, including sharp criticism of Israel, in a swing state.

While the Senate has many progressive members, most come from coastal states considered Democratic strongholds.

A victory for El-Sayed in Michigan would show that his message can attract a winning coalition, which could influence how Democratic presidential candidates may go about their campaigning in 2028.

There is also the factor of El-Sayed’s Muslim faith, which had become the subject of near daily attacks by Rogers and Trump.

The race has raised questions about whether Michigan and the US are ready for a Muslim senator.

Why has Israel become a major issue in the race?

El-Sayed has accused Israel of carrying out a genocide in Gaza, echoing the findings of major human rights organisations and United Nations investigators.

The Democrat has also linked wars, including the conflict in Iran and US aid to Israel, to domestic issues. He says that US taxpayer money is better spent on addressing issues at home, such as healthcare and crumbling infrastructure. Pro-Israel groups, namely the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), have spent tens of millions of dollars to help defeat El-Sayed.

AIPAC backed El-Sayed’s opponent Haley Stevens with more than $30m, making Israel policy one of the most discussed subjects in the election.

El-Sayed overcame the spending onslaught in the primaries, but Rogers – a staunch Israel supporter – has seized on the criticism of El-Sayed from pro-Israel advocates, including some Democrats.

Rogers – who has pledged unconditional support for Israel – has accused El-Sayed of caring more for Palestine than Michigan.

After a lull in spending in Michigan, AIPAC has returned to the race to back Rogers.

The pro-Israel lobby group’s election arm, United Democracy Project, has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on mailers against El-Sayed. According to The New York Times, it has funnelled $9m to a Republican group supporting Rogers.

It is uncommon for the candidate who lost a primary to be part of a major storyline in the general election, but Stevens has been making headlines days ahead of the vote after her fiance endorsed Rogers, citing El-Sayed’s criticism of Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza.

Stevens, a Democrat in the US House of Representatives, has also criticised El-Sayed for his positions on Israel while saying she would still vote for the Democratic candidate.

The congresswoman’s repeated media appearances bashing El-Sayed have earned the scorn of some Democrats.

On Friday, El-Sayed and several Democratic-aligned groups and politicians responded to Stevens, saying that the party must focus on winning the Senate seat.

El-Sayed said in a statement that while “defeating Trump’s hand-picked candidate” should be the priority, “Stevens seems intent on relitigating a primary that ended three months ago.”

What are the voters saying?

Both Rogers and El-Sayed supporters interviewed by Al Jazeera have stressed the race’s importance.

Former Democratic Cynthia Johnson said the negative campaigning around El-Sayed’s religion and ethnicity makes the election especially crucial.

“What’s really at stake is life or death. Our children are being exposed to some very negative, nasty things,” Johnson told Al Jazeera.

“We have to vote like our lives depended on it because we have a person who’s in the White House right now who’s a maniac and we need as many people who are going to speak up as possible – people like Abdul.”

Outside a Trump rally on Sunday, Rogers supporter Rob Cortis expressed similar urgency.

“This election is so important. Our country is at stake. Our border is at stake. The future of our children in America is at stake,” Cortis told Al Jazeera.

“If it flips to communism, socialism or if it goes to Muslim rule America was never intended for that. America is intended to be a nation of Christians, showing the goodness of God.”

What are the polls saying?

Most recent polls have shown El-Sayed with a narrow lead over Rogers – ranging from four to seven percentage points.

However, polling in Michigan – a diverse state of more than 10 million people – has been unreliable over the past decades, often getting the results wrong by several percentage points.

The Cook Political Report has classified the race as a toss-up and both campaigns have warned their supporters that the result may come down to a few thousand votes.

Who is spending in the race?

With nearly $300m spent, Michigan’s Senate race is quickly becoming one of the most expensive in the country.

Political action committees (PACs) aligned with both major parties have been buying ads in support of their respective candidates.

On the Republican side, one of the largest spenders has been Senate Leadership Fund, whose largest donors include pro-Israel billionaire Miriam Adelson.

MAGA Inc and its subsidiary No Going Back, a pro-Trump group funded by the US president’s allies, including Adelson and Elon Musk, have also spent millions of dollars on the race.

Great Lakes Conservatives Fund (GLCF), a Michigan Republican PAC that AIPAC has backed in general elections, has also been a big spender, according to media reports.

The Senate Majority PAC (SMP) and an affiliated group called WINSENATE have been the largest spenders. SMP’s top funders include businessmen Eychaner Fred and Amos Hostetter Jr.

When is the election?

Early voting is underway across Michigan and hundreds of thousands of people have already cast their ballots.

Election day, Tuesday, November 3, will be the last day to vote. Polls in Michigan close at 8pm (01:00 GMT on Wednesday).

When will the result come out?

That depends on how close the race is. If it’s a tight contest, Michigan likely will not find out who won until Wednesday. In the primaries in August, when El-Sayed narrowly defeated Stevens, the Associated Press did not call the race until about 10am (15GMT) on the Wednesday after election day.

Likewise, Michigan was called for Trump in 2024 around 1pm (18:00 GMT) on the day after the election.

However, if one of the candidates acquires a commanding lead across the state, he could be projected as the winner hours after the polls close.